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April 16, 2008
One of the best ways to improve your bankroll has nothing to do with analyzing games and having the ability to pick the right side. It is a tool that you and only you can perfect which will increase your bankroll dramatically. You can simply improve your bankroll by keeping records of all of your bets and understanding what bets are making you money and what bets are draining your bankroll.
All records should be kept for all bets in each sport separately and should be reviewed at the end of month. This helps show your strengths and weaknesses in each sport. Then you can tailor your bankroll to this data and make the most profit. For example, I have founded that I have really excelled in College Bowl Season and the NFL Pre-season Handicapping, so those units are now double the size than my College and NFL Regular Season units. I have the utmost confidence in my abilities after analyzing records for the last 7 years that what I do works during these seasons and have confidence in pressing the envelope during these times. I have also realized through record study that my College Hoops Totals and my College Hoops non-conference play (November-December) absolutely suck. I have stopped playing totals in College Hoops altogether and next year will cut down on College Hoops non-conference play in November and December. This year I was riding about 45% through College Hoops up until conference play including totals and finished about 51% when conference play kicked in and I cut out totals. By understanding where my stengths and weaknesses lie, this study will help me improve next year.
Analyzing and understanding yourself is as important as handicapping the games. You will improve your bankroll significantly by doing this.
April 3, 2008
Roy Oswalt is the ace of the staff for the Astros and one of the best pitchers in the league. Oswalt has some sterling numbers against the majority teams in the league. Against the Diamondbacks he is 7-1 (team record) in his last 8 starts with a 1.18 WHIP and 2.57 ERA. Against the Reds he is 10-1 last 11 starts with a 1.09 WHIP and 2.68 ERA. Against Colorado he is 6-2 witha 1.19 WHIP and 2.14 ERA. Verse Florida, 7-1 last 9 with a 1.20 WHIP and 1.88 ERA. AT home against the Brewers 5-1 with a 1.05 WHIP and 2.66 ERA. Against the Padres he is 8-1 with a 1.09 WHIP and 2.39 ERA. Verse the Cardinals he is 9-5 with a 1.06 WHIP and 2.47 ERA. Oswalt will be very expensive in many situations this year, but you will be able to find some situations where he is valuable.
Brandon Backe is the second starter. He was hurt the majority of last year and doesn’t have a book against most of the teams in the league. Take a wait and see approach with Backe.
Wandy Rodriguez is a young lefty that pitched very well in certain situations last year and terrible in others. One team you would definitely want to fade him with is the Brewers. Rodriguez is 2-7 in 9 starts with a 1.55 WHIP and 5.12 ERA. At Milwaukee those numbers worsen to 1-5 with a 1.71 WHIP and 7.10 ERA.
Shawn Chacon is a veteran reliever who has been yo-yo’d between bullpen pitcher in losing situations all the way to staff ace for many teams in his career. Take a look at Chacon UNDER vs the Padres. 1-7 UNDER in 8 starts with a 1.09 WHIP and 2.68 ERA. At home those numbers worsen to 1-5 UNDER with a 0.97 WHIP and 1.83 ERA.
The youngster Chris Sampson is the 5th starter and has only made 22 starts in 2 years with the Astros. The jury is still out on him.
April 2, 2008
Cincinnati has one of the better pitchers in the National League in Aaron Harang. You usually get great value with Harang since he is not a household name and the Reds have not been very good the last few years. The remainder of the staff consists of Bronson Arroyo, Jose Cueto, Eddie Volquez and Josh Fogg.
Harang is 8-4 against the Astros with a 1.05 WHIP and 3.73 ERA over his last 12 starts which includes going 5-1 away with a 0.87 WHIP and 2.22 ERA. He is 6-2 at Pittsburgh with a 1.14 WHIP and 3.43 ERA. Finally, against the Diamondbacks Harang posts an 0-6 UNDER record with a 0.99 WHIP and 1.74 ERA.
Bronson Arroyo made his name with the Boston Red Sox in 2004 and promptly signed a huge free agent contract with the Reds. Arroyo has struggled with the Astros and the Cardinals so far in the NL Central. Against the Astros Bronson is 8-2 OVER and 6-1 OVER in Houston with a 1.61 WHIP and 6.87 ERA. At St. Louis, Arroyo is 1-6 with a 1.53 WHIP and 5.59 ERA. Against the Brewers, Arroyo is 7-2 with a 1.22 WHIP and 3.51 ERA.
Josh Fogg returns to the NL Central this year after two years in Colorado. Fogg pitches well against the Diamondbacks with a 10-3 record. However he does struggle at home with the Cubs going 6-0-1 OVER with a 1.72 WHIP and 6.25 ERA. The team he least likes facing has to be the Houston Astros. Against the ‘Stros Fogg is 3-9 with a 1.68 WHIP and 6.25 ERA furthermore at Houston he is 0-6 with a 1.95 WHIP and 10.08 ERA.
Cueto and Volquez are young pitchers that have no value in following at this point.
Cubs come into this season with much hoopla surrounding their 100th anniversary of their last World Series win. They also come in as one of the National League favorites to get to the World Series in their second season under Lou Pinella. As with all of the good teams out there, the Cubs rotation is set with Carlos Zambrano as the ace, followed by Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Rich Hill and Jason Marquis.
Zambrano struggles with the Braves going 3-7 (team record) in the his last 10 starts and 1-5 at home during his last 6 home starts. Carlos also struggles at home with the Reds going 3-6 with a 1.53 WHIP and 5.50 ERA. One of the teams that he pitches well against is Houston going 9-4 in his last 13 starts with a 1.23 WHIP and 2.73 ERA while also going 3-10 UNDER. Another division opponent Zambrano has success with is the Cardinals going 10-3 against St. Louis with a 1.01 WHIP and 1.79 ERA.
Ted Lilly was very effective last year making a career high 34 starts for the Cubbies posting a 15-8 record with a 3.83 ERA. Lilly has made all but 3 of his career starts in the American League before last year so he has no book on any of the NL teams yet. However, check back during interleague play when we update the interleague records.
Ryan Dempster comes out of the bullpen to become the 3rd starter. There is not much value in studying his starting record as he has made just 6 starts in 4 years with the Cubs after being a starter for 5 years earlier in his career.
Rich Hill is a bright young pitcher who also made a career high 32 starts last year going 11-8 with a 3.92 ERA. Keep on eye on him as he continues building his book against teams.
Jason Marquis is a National League veteran after stints with Atlanta and St. Louis. Marquis is 8-2 OVER vs the Marlins with a 1.68 WHIP and a 6.10 ERA while going 7-0 OVER at home with a 1.57 WHIP and 6.00 ERA. At Shea Stadium, Marquis is 1-5 against the Mets with a 1.68 WHIP and 6.62 ERA.
March 26, 2008
Atlanta has the most experienced pitching staff in the National League East and should get back to being the cream of the crop if the old folks can hold up all year. John Smoltz is back again as the ace although he opens the season on the DL. He is backed by Tim Hudson who could be the ace for about 25 other teams in the league and then the ancient Tom Glavine who is making his second go round in front of the Tomahawk Chop. The rest of the rotation will round out with journeyman Chuck James and rookie Jair Jurrjens who started 7 games with the Tigers last year. Their are plenty of numbers to analyze with the top 3 so let’s get right to it.
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March 25, 2008
Washington opens a new stadium this year with one of the worst teams in Baseball again. Only two spots in the rotation are guaranteed with 4 pitchers vying for the last 3 spots.
Shawn Hill is listed as the ace. He went 4-5 with a 3.42 ERA last year in 16 starts and only has 25 career starts. There is not enough of a book on him to analyze.
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The Mets had the biggest collapse in the history of Baseball last year being 7.5 games up with 17 to play. So what do they do? Go out and get one of the best pitchers in Baseball in Johan Santana. He has been promptly inserted as the ace of the staff, followed by Pedro Martines, John Maine and Oliver Perez. The fifth and final spot is up for grabs between Orlando Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey.
Johan Santana came over from the Twins so he has doesn’t have much of a book against the National League. Before you get excited about jumping on Santana right away, remember the biggest pitching name that changed leagues last year in Barry Zito. He struggled early and the worst year of his career. I will wait before getting interested in Santana.
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March 24, 2008
Phillies won the NL East for the first time since 1993 and were promptly bounced out of the playoffs in three straight against the Rockies. Brett Myers moves out of the bullpen into the ace role again this year after having to close last year to boost a terrible bullpen. Cole Hamels, last year’s wunderkid backs up Myers followed by Kyle Kendrick and the ageless Jamie Moyer. The fifth position is still up for grabs with Adam Eaton and journeyman JD Durbin among the cast of characters battling for the spot.
Brett Myers started three games last year and the Phils lost all 3 games while he struggled. Not sure how he is going to react this year, but I personally like him in the closer role rather than a starter anyway. Since Myers spent a year in the pen, I am not going to consider his previous starting numbers accurate until he gets some starts under his belt.
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The Florida Marlins traded their most productive pitcher over the last few years to the Tigers in their continued purge of good players each year. Now that Dontrelle Willis will no longer take the hill as an ace for the Marlins, let’s take a look at what was left behind. Right now their are three spots in the rotation filled with Scott Olsen being listed as the ace followed by Sergio Mitre, and Andrew Miller who came over in the trade with the Tigers. The rest of the rotation will be made up of pitchers who should have no effect on your handicapping this year, unless it’s a play against, Rick VandenHurk, Ricky Nolasco, and former Philadelphia 76er Mark Hendrickson.
Scott Olsen is a promising young pitcher who has a bad attitude. He showed up more on police reports last year than he did in the win column, finishing 10-15, 5.81 ERA. He is listed as the ace of this staff this year. He is a pitcher to watch if he is able to get his attitude straightened out. In the meantime, he has struggled against division opponents. In 9 starts against the Phillies, he has a 1.74 WHIP and 6.00 ERA. In 7 starts against the Braves, he has a 1.98 WHIP and 8.33 ERA. Also, in 8 starts against the Mets, he is 7-1 OVER. Take a look at going against him with the Phillies and Braves and look to play OVER vs the Mets with Scott Olsen.
December 23, 2007
The Myth on NFL Parity
With the success of the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers in 2007 we have repeatedly heard rumblings about how parity in the NFL has been lost. I was intrigued by this statement, and decided to do some research to see if indeed it were true. Interestingly, not only does my research show that the statement is not true, it also shows that parity actually never existed. Different teams winning the Superbowl each year does not define league parity. League partity can only be defined by the league in general being more competitive as a whole, and that has simply not been the case throughout the free agency era. The data below will prove this fact, and will show that the only reason for the myth that parity is gone in the NFL is because the same teams (namely, Indianapolis and New England) are the ones succeeding year in and year out. Without further adieu, here is my research using data from 1992 to present. I intentionally started with 1992 since that was the year prior to the current collective bargaining agreement that established the rules for free agency and the salary cap structure which took effect in 1993.
The average points scored by the winning team in an NFL game back in 1992 was 25 pts. Since 1993, the averaging score for the winning team has eclipsed 25 pts in 13 of the 15 seasons of free agency. What’s more, the average margin of victory in 1992 was 11.5 pts, and that margin has been equaled or eclipsed in 8 of the 15 seasons with the average margin coming within a decimal pt of it three additional times. In other words, the league has been less competive in over half the seasons of free agency then they were before free agency, and that is not a new phenomenum as it applies to the 1993, 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2000 seasons just as it does to the last three. Most interesting, however, is a look at the number of blowout victories during free agency as opposed to prior. In 1992, there were 128 games decided by double digits with the average margin of victory in those 128 games being 18.7 pts. Since 1993, the number of blowout wins by double digits has been within five of the 1992 number on nine occasions with the average margin of victory in double digit win games equaling or eclipsing the 1992 number in nine of the fifteen seasons. Most telling, however, in the argument that parity never truly has existed in the free agency era is that there have been the same or more losing teams per season in 10 of the 15 seasons of free agency than there were in the year prior. Interestingly, 2006 was one of the five seasons during that span that actually saw fewer losing teams than 1992.
Here is the season-by-season data to support this study:
2007: 27.5 (12.5) (115 games decided by double digits – avg 19.7 margin in these games)
– all numbers are through the first 14 games.
2006: 26.4 (11.5) (126 games decided by double digits – avg 18.4 margin in these games)
– 12 teams with losing records
2005: 26.5 (11.7) (130 games decided by double digits – avg 18.8 margin in these games)
– 14 teams with losing records
2004: 27.2 (11.4) (133 games decided by double digits – avg 17.8 margin in these games)
– 15 teams with losing records
2003: 26.8 (11.9) (121 games decided by double digits – avg 20.0 margin in these games)
– 16 teams with losing records
2002: 27.2 (11.1) (126 games decided by double digits – avg 18.9 margin in these games)
– 13 teams with losing records
2001: 25.7 (11.0) (116 games decided by double digits – avg 18.6 margin in these games)
– 16 teams with losing records
2000: 26.6 (11.8) (121 games decided by double digits – avg 19.3 margin in these games)
– 13 teams with losing records
1999: 26.5 (11.4) (119 games decided by double digits – avg 19.9 margin in these games)
– 11 teams with losing records
1998: 27.0 (12.5) (125 games decided by double digits – avg 19.9 margin in these games)
– 14 teams with losing records
1997: 26.5 (11.3) (125 games decided by double digits – avg 18.8 margin in these games)
– 14 teams with losing records
1996: 26.2 (11.5) (121 games decided by double digits – avg 18.2 margin in these games)
– 12 teams with losing records
1995: 26.9 (10.8) (122 games decided by double digits – avg 17.8 margin in these games)
– 13 teams with losing records
1994: 25.5 (10.5) (111 games decided by double digits – avg 17.8 margin in these games)
– 12 teams with losing records
1993: 24.4 (11.4) (120 games decided by double digits – avg 18.5 margin in these games)
– 11 teams with losing records
1992: 25 (11.5) (128 games decided by double digits – avg 18.7 margin in these games)
– 13 teams with losing records
There you have it. The myth of parity in the NFL is simply that - a myth. League parity has never existed, even during the free agent era, as there have always been about the same number of good and bad teams; albeit different ones. The only difference today from back in the earlier days of free agency is that teams like New England and Indianapolis have learned how to manage the salary cap, as well as get free agents to come play for them at less that market value so they can win championships while the team stays under the cap.
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