ProfessorWins
01-11-2007, 10:32 PM
I will definately have a few more subscriber plays, but throwing this one out there tonight......
2* LA LAKERS -4.5 over Orlando
Orlando has now won and covered 5 consecutive games SU/ATS. However, road dogs that have won and covered 5 consecutive games SU/ATS are 17-46-2 ATS since 1995 (11-31-1 ATS since 2000). Note that dogs of +3 or more are 9-35-2 ATS since 1995 and 7-25-1 ATS since 2000 in this situation. The Lakers are 11-4 ATS last 15 as home favorites of less than 7 pts, and they are 8-0 ATS last 8 games at home against teams with a winning record. They are also 4-0 SU/ATS this season versus teams that they beat in their previous same season meeting, and I like the matchups in this game. The only problem I have with making this a 5* play is the Lakers have historically failed to rebound well after a blowout loss. As a matter of fact, they are just 6-15 SU and 4-16-1 ATS last 2 ½ seasons when coming off a loss by 15 or more pts and 0-8-1 ATS when coming off loss by 20 or more pts. The negative 17-46-2 ATS angle going against Orlando is stronger than the team trend against the Lakers (just 21 occurrances over a 2 year period vice 66 over an 11 year period), but with the Lakers coming off a loss by 25 at Houston on Wednesday, that’s enough to make this a simple 2* play here and nothing crazy.
2* LA LAKERS -4.5 over Orlando
Orlando has now won and covered 5 consecutive games SU/ATS. However, road dogs that have won and covered 5 consecutive games SU/ATS are 17-46-2 ATS since 1995 (11-31-1 ATS since 2000). Note that dogs of +3 or more are 9-35-2 ATS since 1995 and 7-25-1 ATS since 2000 in this situation. The Lakers are 11-4 ATS last 15 as home favorites of less than 7 pts, and they are 8-0 ATS last 8 games at home against teams with a winning record. They are also 4-0 SU/ATS this season versus teams that they beat in their previous same season meeting, and I like the matchups in this game. The only problem I have with making this a 5* play is the Lakers have historically failed to rebound well after a blowout loss. As a matter of fact, they are just 6-15 SU and 4-16-1 ATS last 2 ½ seasons when coming off a loss by 15 or more pts and 0-8-1 ATS when coming off loss by 20 or more pts. The negative 17-46-2 ATS angle going against Orlando is stronger than the team trend against the Lakers (just 21 occurrances over a 2 year period vice 66 over an 11 year period), but with the Lakers coming off a loss by 25 at Houston on Wednesday, that’s enough to make this a simple 2* play here and nothing crazy.