Oct 2007 On Frozen Pond

[barman]

I won't be making selections in NHL for at least a few days, but am looking forward to the start of my favorite stretch of sports capping (Oct-early June)

Looking forward to a great 2007-8 NHL for all of us

Steve

[barman]

We'll begin the season with an English lesson:

DEGENERATE - (n) - Anyone posting significant action immediately after claiming he would not for "at least a few days".

Often accompanied by the adjective "Hopeless".

================

Thursday, Oct 4

Reg

DEVIL/NING Undah 5.5 (-125)

Dunno....only three of past twelve HTH have topped 5.5 -- Lightning insistence on better Home play this seasion starts by their clamping down on D. Their first outing will be against league's 27th scoring offense from last season.

Meanwhile, in his past four season Openers, M Brodeur has only allowed five goals.

[barman]

Reg

BUD +1.5 (-180) at Sen

Visiting team in past 38 reg season H2H is 28-10 when graded at +1.5

[barman]

Thursday Summary

http://www.therxforum.com/images/smilies/Guitarman.gifhttp://www.therxforum.com/images/smilies/Guitarman.gif

2-0 (+2.00)

Off to pack a bowl

[barman]

SIDE NOTE about how I cap and writeup NHL games - I do not include SO goals either for or against in my personal analysis. I treat all SO games as "Ties" (1/2 point value in standings). That's notable because I often cite this or that Past Record and the reader might be slightly confused otherwise.

SS

===============
Friday, Oct 5

Two Doobies

DUCK/JACK Undah 5.5 (-120)

Reg

JACK teamtotal Undah 3 (price to follow)

Anaheim missing Giguere but the basics of the D remain nicely consistent. They've allowed just seven goals in first three games and now they roll into CBus where the Jackets last season were 28th in the league in scoring and 26th in PP.

Jackets in their final dozen Home games versus teams with winning records did not top 3 even once (0-6-6).

Ducks all last season Away versus below .500 teams allowed more than 3 just four times in 17 outings (4-11-2)

Meanwhile, CLB under Ken Hitchcock dropped their overall Goals Allowed to 2.9 in 59 games. And as they got more into his trap style system they allowed just 2.5 avg in their final 20 Home games.

Total slightly up, imho, due to past five outings H2H going over 6.

BOL in all your selections for Friday

[barman]

Reg

BEAR/MIGHTY STARS Undah 5.5 (-120)

Dallas games should be a pleasure to cap all season, regardless of For/Against, because they play a very quantifiable style.

Versus Boston, that's handy tonight because the Bruins until further notice shouldn't be too hard to measure either since other than goaltender, they're basic offensive results will likely remain offensive to fans.

Bruins past 10 Away vs Top Tier (1/4 of league) defenses scored just 18 goals. Preseason gives us little reason to think that's likely to fatten, especially versus Stars in their home opener.

Bruins in same 10 outings were 3-7 versus Total of 5.5

Stars all last season versus teams that finished in bottom 1/3 of league offense allowed just 2.0 per game.

In same set of 20 games they were 6-14 versus Total of 5.5

Addition of Manny Fernandez and early season tightness should hopefully keep Dallas from pullling an opening night punch out (4+ goals) versus the heavy dog Bostons.

[barman]

Friday Summary

2-1 (+1.60)

MTD

4-1 (+3.60)

Off to pack a bowl

[barman]

Saturday, Oct 6

Two Doobies

NING -125 vs Thrash

Fear of Homerism keeps me from making this first 3doober of the new season.

TheATL remains a very interesting club with potential for solid scoring each night and the teasing potential of a very young highly touted goalie.

But their early season offense in 2006-7 began to fizzle a bit, especially Away where in their final 14 outings they only scored 29 times and won only four.


They enjoyed a five game win burst in early March, but that was sandwiched by 28 games with a 9-19 record.

In short, this is at best an ordinary team since Heatley left. In an Eastern conference with improvement seen on several clubs, they could well follow suit with the 2003Bolts and the 2005Panthers and not even make the playoffs this year.

Friday night in their home opener they lost 3-1 to a non-playoff team from last season (Was) while allowing 40 shots on goal and getting rung up for seven penalties.

If the Lightning get 30+ shots, they could well hit 4 or more.

Bolts won five of seven from Atlanta last year before a season ending/standings meaningless SO victory by Thrash. In those H2H games, the home team won the PP 11-3

Finally, Thrash in the unenviable second in two nights, where they have won only once in past eight Away.

Lightning struggled to be consistent at Home last season and could well give fans plenty of burps just as in past two seasons.

But until one occurs, we'll view them as solid Home favorites versus any team that appears non-playoff bound.

[barman]

Two Doobies

LEBLEUBLANC&ROUGE/BUD Over 6 (+115)

BUD teamtotal Over 3 (-120)

Reg

BUD -150 vs Lbb&r

Matchup here between last season's 23rd and 25th defenses. Last season in eight H2H, 53 goals plus four SO goals on the backside. Three of the eight went Under 6 (3-3-2)

Toronto held to Under 3 just once in final seven and also in first matchup.

Toronto past 2 1/2 seasons After Ottawa has scored 39 in nine games and held to Under 3 just once (7-1-1)

Montreal last season in final 17 Away held opponent Under 3 just once (11-1-5)

Montreal last half season in 18 outings * After holding opponent to 2 or less* kept new opponent Under 3 just four times (8-4-6)

Past 14 H2H, the home team has not lost in regulation. Toronto won three of four H2H last season when going to SO.

Finally, Buds 8-3-2 in past two seasons After Ottawa.

BOL in all your Saturday selections.

[barman]

Copy of my early morning RxForum post

Reg

Saturday Home Teams -3 (-103) oly

[barman]

Saturday Summary

5-0 (+8.30)

MTD 9-1 (+11.90)

Off to pack a major bowl

[FixerWins]

nice glad to see you have the pucks up and running..........

[barman]

Monday, Oct 8

Reg

SEN -170 vs Devil

Every season, there's a handful of teams that get off to really hot starts and the Senators have all the makings of being such a club until further notice.

Last year, this scheduling role (Home following home with 1 day off) Ottawa posted a 12-1 mark including a pair of wins to knock Devils out of playoffs in May.

New Jersey's Away last season vs Top10 Offenses netted just five wins in 13 outings.

And oh yeah, Sens were Top10 D as well and Devils Away vs same got only two wins in eleven attempts.

When Sens face Top10D at Home, they saw seven of nine go Under last year, so we have a good Lean to Under 5, but will stick solely with the more solid Side here.

Related stat is that in 13 of past 17 H2H, Devils win at +1.5, so the more enterprising Player might lay the -210 and go for a one goal Ottawa win and a pair of cashed bets.

We'll stick with Protecting Our Unit on this one.

Best of luck with all your Monday selections

[barman]

SIDE NOTE to my capping style

Unless otherwise detailed, accumulated stat numbers I present are most often tied to the past two full seasons plus this one to date, in order to harmonize a bit with "post lockout" rules and rosters.

Some divisional H2Hs will carry greater detail.

====================

Reg

OIL +1.5 (-140) at Wing

May well be playing tighter than we should as Edmonton has won three of past four trips into Motown along with nine wins overall in past 14 H2H

An even better sample avails us when grading at +1.5

Oil covered 11 of those past 14 H2H.

Last season Away, Oil won with +1.5 at 28-14 rate

Last season Home, Wing won with -1.5 at 17-25 rate with a 6-16 on 1 Day rest.

In seven preseason and now two regular season, Edmonton demonstrating pretty consistent results and outscored opponents 7-3 in five on five hockey so far. Detroit with only two goals in first two games skating at full strength, so if Oilers can keep PK time to 6 or less, they should be able to keep this one tight enough for a nice cover.

Lean to Edmonton +200 ml

Off to pack a late night bowl

[barman]

Monday Summary

1-1 (-0.40)

PASSING on Tuesday's single game and working on what should be a busy Wednesday card.

[barman]

Couple more notes about what you can expect to read in my NHL thread.

1) I will be playing Prop bets and I separate their Results from my W/L record on full game Side and Total wagers. This is also where I tally any selections that are based on the results of partial games ("Period" bets in hockey).

2) I will be using one selection most days in a continual attempt to "roll over" a win up to two times. That selection will be deemed "Best Bet" at some point in the thread. (as you've noticed, I often make multiple posts in a single day)

The BB is played for 2unit exposure until it wins. The next BB is then doubled (4 units) and if it wins, a third chance is taken at (8 units). Upon success in two rollovers, the next BB reverts back to 2units.

It's essentially a variation on a 3way parlay, but the three portions are on different days.

3) Finally, on days with really 10+ games, if I have time to review most of the games, I may attempt a BB in 7pm games and then follow that up with a 10pm game.

Sharing these details now because if I'm able to stay sufficiently involved (my job schedule is best ever to include sports investing) they might be questions of interest to the Reader at Large.

Thanks again to ALL sincere participants in the RxForum HOCKEY room. All of us can benefit from honest information shared in sincere fashion.

Steve

[barman]

Wednesday, Oct 10

Three Prop Plays (olympic)

Regs

SCORE FIRST GOAL

BEAR +135 at Duck
FIRE +155 at Wing
OIL +155 at Wild
===============

Future Play

Two Doobies

LIGHTNING win Cup (+4050) oly

[barman]

Regs

SEN -1.5 (+190) at Thrash
NING -1.5 (+190) vs Cat

Playing two "hot til they're not" teams tonight here.

SENS facing what we purport to be a honed down Atlanta club that will struggle all year to be in reliable contention.

In isolated Away games last year, Sens covered the -1.5 in eight of 13 outings.

Thrash have played well vs Ottawa past couple seasons with five wins in eight H2H. In all three Sen wins, the 2+ goal margin was satisfied. We're hoping that this history is stimulating a bit better pricing for tonight.

===
LIGHTNING complete their season opening three game home set versus longest time rival Florida - a matchup that has slightly favored the Panthers over past season with their winning four of past five H2H. In fact, the Cats have exploited those wins with very above average scoring - trampling the TBay defense for 23 goals in four games.

The watchword in Tampa this year - as is the case with most teams in October - is DEFENSE.

Tampa's failure to make notable playoff push past two seasons is totally summed up by their having below average defense. However, last year that was often due to Torterella's failure to commit to a single goalie - something he's done for 2007-8 by naming Homer Holmqvist the full time net minder.

Homer enters tonight's game with a 29-15 record with the Lightning, a pace that is certainly healthy for any team.

Bolts have improved their defensemen as well, which should prove to be even sweeter next month when Danny Boyle returns to the ice. For now, they're a good bet to pinch most teams to 2 or less and with the Lightning scoring punch, that's a nice chance to Win more nights than not.

In this one, we're hoping to see TBay pumped up due to those last five games of last season when the Panthers took them to school repeatedly.

Best of luck in all your Wednesday selections

[barman]

Reg

RANGER teamtotal Over 3 (-105) at Isle

This is a really good scheduling spot for the Rangers versus a lousy spot for Islanders if we use last season as an indicator.

Last year playing Away after Away with 2+ days off, Rangers were a perfect 4-0.

Islanders playing at Home after Home with 1 day off were measly 3-10.

This year they've already lost another game in that role (vs Was Monday night) and until they can shake it off, we're inclined to home in on their opponent having a good outing when this spot comes up.

Thinking here is that Rangers Totals lines may be nicely lower for at least a month or so given their heavy hitting on the Under last season. However, the bulk of that was in their Home games where three of every four games went Under. In their Away games, they were almost even (15-19-7)

[barman]

Reg

YOTE/JACK Undah 5.5 (-115)

We're really challenged to see where someone hits 4 goals in this game and figure the only way it goes Over is if the two teams muster up and tie 3-3 in regulation.

Perhaps a narrow view, but here's some breakdown.

Phoenix last year Away vs defenses in top half of league scored more than 2 just six times in 24 attempts.

As noted in our last writeup on Columbus, in the last half of last season after Coach Hitchcock's influence was felt, they lowered their Home defense to 2.5 pg

Past 20 games at Columbus have topped 5.5 only six times in 20.

Yotes 24th in scoring last year and in their first two outings this season have played quite well in limiting opponents to just 48 shots on goal.

Jacks have only two goals so far at even strength (in two games) and we're really liking this one to be a slow grinder, with CBus most likely prevailing.

[barman]

PROP play

Vinny Lecav points vs Olli Jokinen (-130)

[barman]

FIRE +160 at Wing
FIRE +1.5 (-200) at Wing

Somewhat similar to the game Monday when Edmonton came into Motown and lost the spread bet on a Detroit empty netter in final thirty seconds.

But in this case, the freshness of intense H2H is from last April, rather than April 2006. Flames took Wing to six games and admittedly lost three times by 2+

But it's a fresh season and we've got Detroit in a bad spot for them based on past two seasons.

In games following a Home win of 2+ goals, Detroit is just 20-19 SU and 11-27 when graded at -1.5

Since late Nov 2005, when playing Away with 2+ days off, Calgary is 8-1-SU and 14-4 when graded at +1.5

Off to pack a bowl. May return for a bit of Left Coast

[barman]

Wednesday Best Bet is NYR teamtotal Over 3 (-105)

[barman]

In honor of my HighAction Rx friend ICEMAN, we're reminded that there's always a couple slots left on the sheet if you spot the right plays

Two Doobies

SHARK/HAWK Undah 5.5 (-130)

Reg

SHARK -1.5 (+190) at Hawk

San Jose past 18 Away versus Bottom10 Offense

13-5 SU
11-7 at -1.5
5-13 vs 5.5 total

Chicago past 21 Home versus Top10 Defense

7-14 SU
12-9 at +1.5
4-17 vs 5.5 total

NOW let's pack that bowl

[barman]

OIL teamtotal Undah 2 (-120) at Wild

Let's see if we can catch Edmonton on a slump following their nine goals in first three games and being last year's lowest scoring team.

Minnesota in past 22 Home games versus Bottom10 offenses has permitted more than 2 goals just three times (3-16-3)

Edmonton has scored just 12 goals in past 10 H2H with Minny.