Dr. Bob's Picks and line movements.....

[cr8onjr]

This stuff makes me shake my head. I'm just scoping out the lines for the weekend vs. my locals, etc. and all of a sudden Troy moves to 21-, Michigan down to -1, Fresno St jumps to -14. All of this, because this tout gets some ESPN airtime and announces his picks?! Seems like a bit of an overexaggeration in terms of line adjustments.

Fixer Prof your thoughts on this??

cr8onjr

[FixerWins]

I saw that on ESPN.

Rick, Is this the same Dr. Bob that accused us of stealing his picks and posting them about 6 or 7 years ago with scathing e-mails?

I will elaborate more on this later. It's deeper than just ESPN.

[ProfessorWins]

Not sure if it is the same guy......

But, the recent news on him has gotten him even more fans I am sure and hence more money pouring in on his releases.......I posted my plays yesterday and had Illinois +2.5 when I did the writeup in the afternoon when I played them....by the time I posted the line was pick-em and even Illinois -1 in some places. Not sure yet, but I can almost guarantee Illinois will be one of his plays. Saturday Lines don't move 3 pts in a matter of two hours on a Thursday afternoon.....its highly unusual.

From looking at Service Kings plays below the last few weeks, Doctor Bob hasn't been doing well in college (something like 5-11 or so), so why is he moving lines like this? It's all based on the publicity. Makes you scratch you head what people will jump on when ESPN, the Wall St Journal and others tout a certain story, and everyone takes everything they say at face value. They believe he will hit 65% in the future because he claims 65% or something over the past years...... those that jumped on him at the start of this season are getting buried. I guess that will be the next ESPN story.

Rick

[ProfessorWins]

Just found this post at another site that caters to service plays......these are his plays/writeups for this week for those interested. Of course, all these lines are no longer available.........

4 Star Selection
****OHIO ST. (-17.5) 37 Michigan St. 9
12:30 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Ohio State is the new #1 team in the land and it won’t be tough for coach Tressel to keep them motivated each week given the rash of upsets in the top 5 this season. The Buckeyes are very unlikely to get upset at home and they’re likely to win big given their 17-5-1 ATS record in conference home games as a favorite under Tressel – including 12-1 ATS when they have a good defense (enter game allowing 15 or less points per game for the season). Ohio State also applies to a very strong 47-10 ATS subset of a 118-60-4 ATS momentum situation and my math model is strongly in favor of the Buckeyes covering this game too. Michigan State has a good offense (6.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) but the Spartans have been worse than average in two games against better than average defensive teams – gaining just 4.5 yppl against Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, who would combine to allow 4.7 yppl to an average team. Ohio State is the best defensive team in the nation, allowing only 3.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit, and the Buckeyes have held good offensive teams Washington, Minnesota, and Purdue to a combined 4.1 yppl and 9.3 points per game. Ohio State’s offense started the season slowly running a conservative game plan, but quarterback Todd Boeckman has found his comfort zone and the Buckeyes are now better than average offensively. Scoring points shouldn’t be a problem against a Michigan State defense that is worse than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 5.0 yppl against an average team). Michigan State did well early in the season containing bad offensive teams, but they’ve allowed 6.6 yppl and 37 points per game in 3 conference games against Wisconsin, Northwestern and Indiana – who would combine to average only 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Ohio State’s defense and great special teams will supply them with very good field position all day long and I expect the Buckeyes to score more than enough points to cove the number in this game. Ohio State has only allowed more than 7 points once all season (they gave up 14 points at Washington), so they may need to only score 28 points or so to cover, which should be no problem. My math model favors the Buckeyes by 27 ½ points and the situation is favorable, so I’ll take Ohio State in a 4-Star Best Bet at -18 points or less, for 3-Stars from - 18 ½ to -20 points and for 2-Stars at -20 ½ to -21 points.

3 Star Selection
***Memphis 36 RICE (-2.0) 27
12:00 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Rice has beaten me two weeks in a row despite playing as poorly as I thought they would. The Owls beat Southern Miss two weeks ago when injured Southern Miss backup Stephen Reaves was forced into the game and couldn’t throw the ball effectively. Southern Miss still out-gained Rice 5.2 yards per play to 4.0 yppl and nearly won despite Reaves’ injury leading to 7 turnovers. The Owls had luck on their side again last week as Houston fumbled two kickoff returns in the first half and turned the ball over at the 5 yard line, leading to 3 short TD drives for Rice. The Cougars also blew a 1st and goal at the 1 yard line opportunity at the end of the half when they fumbled at the 1 yard line. Rice’s pathetic defense gave up 8 Houston TD drives of 65 yards or more, as the Cougars scored nearly every time that they didn’t turn the ball over. Rice, meanwhile, had just 3 TD drives of more than 17 yards and were out-gained by 307 total yards – which would normally result in a losing margin of about 31 points if it weren’t for turnovers (Rice lost by only 8 points). Turnovers, especially fumbles, are mostly random and Rice is not likely to continue to be so fortunate as they’ve been the last two weeks. Fortunately for us, those turnovers have led to solid line value against the Owls this week. Memphis is certainly not a good team, but the Tigers are much better than Rice. Memphis has been 0.6 yppl worse than average on offense this season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and they’re a little better with starting quarterback Martin Hankins back at the helm after missing the last two games. Rice’s defense, meanwhile, has surrendered a horrendous 7.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, so the Memphis attack has a significant 1.0 yppl advantage. The Tigers have defensive problems too, as they rate at 0.7 yppl worse than average on the stop side of the ball (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl), but Rice is 0.8 yppl worse than average on offense (4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), so the Tigers’ defense is actually a little better than Rice’s offense. Both teams are horrible in special teams and projected turnovers are even (even though Memphis is +8 in turnover margin while Rice is +3). Overall my math model favors Memphis by 4 ½ points in this game and the Tigers apply to a very good 86-28-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Rice applies to a negative 19-51-1 ATS scheduling angle. I’ll take Rice in a 3-Star Best Bet at pick or as an underdog and for 2-Stars from -1 to -2 ½ points.

3 Star Selection
***ILLINOIS 31 Michigan (-2.5) 23
05:00 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Illinois lost at Iowa last week, but I’ll come right back with them today against a Michigan team that is still overrated. Michigan has bounced back from losses to Appalachian State and Oregon to climb back into the top 25 and to sit atop the Big 10 standings. However, Michigan hasn’t suddenly become a great team just because they’ve won 5 straight games, just as Illinois hasn’t suddenly become a mediocre team because of last week’s loss. That loss actually sets up the Illini in a positive 53-22 ATS situation that plays on home underdogs after losing as a road favorite of 3 points or more the previous week and Ron Zook has always had his teams prepared to play their best against good teams. Going back to his days at Florida Zook’s teams are 12-4-1 ATS as an underdog in conference play against a team with a win percentage of greater than .667, including 5-0 ATS since last season. Michigan, meanwhile, is just 5-15 ATS as a road favorite the week after winning and covering the spread under coach Carr so they’re not likely to play well again this week after beating up on an overrated Purdue team last week. The Illini are also the better team even if I dismiss Michigan’s horrible defensive performance in their first two games. Michigan is only 0.2 yards per play better than average defensively for the season (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team), but the Wolverines have been 0.6 yppl better than average since Big 10 play began 4 weeks ago and that’s the level I’ll use for them. Michigan’s pass defense has really tightened up, but they are still just mediocre in recent games defending the run and they won’t be able to stop Illinois from running the ball against them this week. The Illini have averaged 6.1 yards per rushing play this season (against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) and RB Rashard Mendenhall (839 yards at 6.5 ypr) and mobile quarterbacks Juice Williams and Edde McGee will have good success in this game (Michigan has had trouble with mobile quarterbacks this season). Overall, the Illini attack is 0.5 yppl better than average, which is about the same as Michigan’s recent defensive rating. Michigan’s offense is vastly overrated, as the Wolverines have averaged only 5.4 yppl this season to teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. The Wolverines are better when both quarterback Chad Henne and star receiver Mario Manningham are both in the game, but I they still rate at just 0.3 yppl better than average in that scenario. Illinois is 0.5 yppl better than average defensively and they are especially good defending the run (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp), so Michigan’s mediocre rushing attack (4.9 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp) isn’t likely to be effective in this game. Not only is Illinois better from the line of scrimmage than Michigan (even after discarding Michigan’s first few defensive games) but the Illini are also significantly better on special teams and my math model favors Illinois by 8 ½ points. Illinois beat Penn State on this field a few weeks ago and they should beat Michigan too. I’ll take Illinois in a 3-Star Best Bet as an underdog of +1 or more and I’d make Illinois a 2-Star Best Bet at pick or -1 point.

[ProfessorWins]

Program wouldn't let me post them all since it was too many characters....here are the rest


2 Star Selection
**TROY STATE (-19.5) 49 North Texas 21
12:30 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Troy is the class of the Sun Belt Conference and they should beat the Mean Green easily if they are properly focused. Troy is just average offensively (5.5 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), but that’s very good for a Sun Belt team and the Trojans should score at will against a horrendous North Texas defense that’s allowed 7.3 yppl to teams that would average only 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. Troy’s defense is 0.2 yppl worse than average, but that is also good my SBC standards and the Trojans are actually very good defending the pass (5.3 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average defense), which is what counts against a North Texas attack that averages 52 pass plays per game. The Eagles are 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively and they’re even worse since freshman Giovanni Vizza was given the starting quarterback job. The Mean Green have averaged 30 points in two games with Vizza at quarterback, but they’ve averaged only 5.4 yppl against two teams (ULL and ULM) that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl and 39 points to an average division 1A team. North Texas also has horrendous special teams and Troy should dominate this game if they are focused. My only problem with taking Troy is that they are 0-6 ATS against conference opponents after a bye week, but that trend is not as significant as the negative 43-100-2 ATS road letdown situation that applies to North Texas, who is off an upset win. I’ll take Troy in a 2-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less.


2 Star Selection
**FRESNO ST. (-12.5) 38 San Jose St. 17
02:00 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
San Jose State is coming off a heart-breaking overtime loss to Hawaii and teams that narrowly miss pulling off a big upset usually struggle the next week. In fact, the Spartans apply to a negative 62-142-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise. San Jose State also applies to a negative 28-73-1 ATS situation and a 61-139-1 ATS situation that are all independent of one another. This is a letdown game for the Spartans and Fresno State is capable of taking advantage. The Bulldogs have been hurt by defensive injuries, so a defense that has been 0.1 yards per play better than average for the season is now a bit worse than average. San Jose State quarterback Adam Tafralis has heated up thanks to a schedule loaded with bad defensive teams lately (after facing good pass defenses early on), but a good pass attack is balanced out by a dreadful rushing game that has averaged a national worst 2.9 yards per rushing play. Overall, the Spartans have been 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively this season and they averaged just 4.9 yppl last week against a Hawaii team that would allow 5.6 yppl on the road to an average team. San Jose State’s defense is average from the line of scrimmage but they’re better than average thanks to their ball-hawking secondary that has picked off 15 passes in 7 games. Fresno State quarterback Tom Brandstater has only thrown 3 interceptions all season, so he’s not likely to toss more than 1 in this game and Fresno’s better than average attack (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) should move the ball at a decent clip while the Bulldogs’ great special teams sets that unit up with good field position. My math model favors Fresno State by 13 ½ points, so the line is more than fair, and the situation is strongly against San Jose State. I’ll take Fresno State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 3-Stars at -11 or less.

[ProfessorWins]

I find it interesting that absolutely none of his angles are detailed. I can tell you that I have been using a college database going back to 1980 for a couple years now, and have yet to find an angle anywhere near the 86-28-1 ATS that he has for Memphis. Nice info from a sales perspective, but as a customer I would think they would want a detail or two.....something.

Rick

[FixerWins]

This Dr. Bob apparently is a service that has been hitting 60+% over the last 3 years, prior to this one. As ESPN has reported, he has a 168 IQ and has put together an algorithm 3 years ago that has been working.

This is what I know about this whole phenomena prior to the ESPN report.

Apparently, last year some big time players and many other players caught on to Dr. Bob and started playing his picks due to his record in the previous few years. The casinos caught on in the middle of the football season, because they were getting pounded on certain plays that were not their usual professional/syndication players who they usually work hard with to keep in check. When they found out where the picks were coming from, they subscribed to the service, and moved the plays on air as soon as they were released, some by as many as 4 points as they knew an avalanche of money would be coming in on that side. That was intended to scare the players away, which would lessen the handle, or start drawing money on the other side to balance things out beforehand.

The only other tout that I know who currently moves lines on releases is when Phil Steele releases one of his many College Football games of the years or his games of the weeks or whatever nonsense games of he releases. With such a huge following, regardless if it is the right side or not, the books move the game when it's released because of the avalanche of money they will be getting in on that side. Historically, that Doc's Sports Big 10 Game of the Year used to move numbers, and may still a point or two, but that has all but went away over the last 10 years after he moved a line 7 or 8 points 10+ years ago and lost the game by the time all of the clients were able to play it.

So here is another reason why it makes no sense to become a tout or follow a touts plays. When the tout does become really good the books are going to catch on to him anyway and you are not going to win as much as he shows he is winning anyway. It also goes to show you how scared the books are of the Wayne Roots and Jim Feists of the world. They get no such respect when they release any of their plays.

One thing that can not be stressed enough to everyone is that Sportsbooks are a business. They are in business to make money off of you and off of me. They want our money, it's that simple, they do not want to balance the action and make vig. So they will move lines on air based on things like that.

I didn't even think to look at the movements this week to see if they would be any higher than usual on the Dr. Bob picks, now that the ESPN report came out on Tuesday.

We have Dr. Bob's picks on the service consensus down there, has anyone been tracking to see how good he is doing this year?

[FixerWins]

Ahh, you posted as I was posting.

He uses algorithms for his angles, which means he can have up a finite number of angles to come up with his numbers.

An algorithm would go something like this.

Team A scored 40 points last game and is home this game.
Team A outyarded their opponent by 75 yards last week.
Team B is giving up 350 yards per game.
Team B has lost 3 straight games.
Team A is wearing red jerseys.
Team B has played 5 games in 32 days.
The weather is 65 degrees or higher.
Team B is getting 3.5 to 9 points.
Team A is ranked 10 or higher in the AP poll.

What is the outcome if all of these apply in order?

So I would assume this is not technical angles that you and I are used to studying.

[FixerWins]

I could go on an on about this stuff.

This is where I disagree in the handicapping with the "math guys" and the "edge players"

I was at a handicapping conference a few years back and I took this back from the conference that helped me improve my own handicapping. The speaker mentioned that most people look at handicapping as a science but it is really an art, because of the human traits that are applied to it.

For example, these write-ups are purely math based. The basic If, Then theorems. I have Fresno St. as 13.5 points better than San Jose St. so if Fresno St. is -12.5 then play 2*'s, if Fresno St. is -11.5 then play 3*'s. This is where the human factor is never applied. The line is a human factor. A base for the line is a computer model, but than the line is adjusted based on human opinion. Take the BCS computer as a base for our argument. The BCS raw computer (without the human polls) had So Fla ranked ahead of Ohio St. so if you were to set your line based off the BCS computer, So Fla would be about a 2 point favorite on Ohio St. on a neutral field. Now get the human factor involved, and that line would not even be close to So Fla -2, Ohio St. would probably be about -10.

Now with the human factor being applied to the handicapping side of things, your handicapping will not have a tangible aspect for everything you look at. For example, Michigan has not beaten Ohio St. in 10 years and finally beat them last week, and now play at New Mexico St. this week. There is no tangible aspect that plays on the emotional standpoint of that team that you can transfer into the line from an oddsmaking standpoint or a handicapping standpoint. Injuries would be another issue. Although some people would say Tom Brady is worth 4 points to the line, that is just an opinion. As much as you try to rate players, there is tangible way you can rate Tom Brady as being so many points better than the backup QB. That is why handicapping and oddsmaking is an art and not a science because of the human factor involved.

Where I disagree with the "edge players", is that they will look at the opening line of Michigan laying -2.5 and now with them just getting +2 will look at that as perceived value in Michigan. However, the opening line or the closing line is not right or wrong, it is just the line. It is there to try and make the books as much money as possible. It is a human creation. The goal as a handicapper/bettor is take our line, our creation, and beat their line with it as many times as we possibly can. If I think Illinois should be -10 in this game, I don't look at having to lay -2 instead of getting +2.5 as a reason to lower my bet or pass the game because I am getting less value. What I am saying is I have more confident that my numbers can beat your numbers. Whereas the math guys who do this as a scientific experiment, throw their hands up because the line movement completely throws their algorithm out of whack. Handicapping/Oddsmaking is not a science because the line is a human creation. If everyone is going to bet this side, the books need to move the line. If New England covers 5 times in a row, we have to raise to line because everyone is going to bet New England, if New England covers again, we have to raise the line more, because everyone will bet them again despite what the computer says. This is where you find "value" in handicapping. Value that the books have to beat players who do not do this for a living because there is a lot more of them (or should I say there is more money from them) out there than people who do it for a living.

The moral of the story is that the human factor will always beat the math model any day of the week. Some math models will have it's runs for maybe even a few years at a time but the human factor will always catch up at some point, rather it be line movements, or hiring geniuses to figure out these models. No human is that much smarter than another, whereas if Dr. Bob can figure something out to beat the line at a 65%+ clip, then someone else will be able to figure it out sooner or later and then he will no longer be able to keep that % up. Now with the attention from ESPN, look for that to happen sooner rather that later.

P.S. That's why I enjoy being a late player rather than an early player. Sometimes I will just have a feeling when the lines will move during the week because of too much money going to be poured in on that side and have to get down early at that number. But most of the times the extra days to process the information to make a clear conscious decision work better for me than not. I can't worry about how the line is moving because the books are trying to manipulate how people are going to play because of a certain release. I just have to have confidence that my numbers are better than their numbers, or I perceive I am not getting enough value based on the movement, I can pull out the most valuable aspect in my handicapping arsenal, THE PASS. They have had sporting events for thousands of years, and I am sure they will be playing them for a thousand more, so their will be other opportunities.

[cr8onjr]

Interesting discussion, and I personally value, both of your guys thoughts on this topic. Over at EE, there are occasionally discussions of "house plays" where a large amount of the plays are on one team, and the line will move the other direction or stay put, thus giving some the perception that they are on the side of the house.

What are your guys thoughts on the info, from say a wagerline. Do you feel like that is representative of the % based on number of plays, etc. Obviously there is no way that the books are going to show the % of the $$ bet, or at least I highly doubt that the situation. I can get that from my local, as he and I are friends and he'll share that with me from time to time.

My local also used to have a strong opinion that the opening line was usually the best number for a game and the moves, were just an effort to get more action on the other side, when they were getting hammered one way. For whatever reason, I have taken that as more accurate than not. However, I have an offshore that will move numbers real quickly, e.g. when the Dr. Bob picks were released, many times particularly closer to game time IF there are big moves 1 point or more, that side has usually been a winner. For example @ gametime last night, they had USF down to -1 1/2 from 2 1/2 early in the day and 2 1 hour before gametime.

Watching those moves feels like we are trying to short a stock or something akin to that. The fact of the matter is over the years, I have gotten much better @ picking winners, by incorporating many different methods of capping, including all of your guys info, but not the cat dumping on the paper.

glta

cr8onjr

[FixerWins]

cr8

good questions and observations. These are bordering on some trade secrets that I have learned throughout the years, so I will be glad to answer these questions in the membership section.

However, as you can probably figure, I am pretty tied up from now until Monday, so I will get back to you after then.

[ProfessorWins]

Cr8onjr,

Yeah man....Ed and I have talked about this stuff over and over throughout the years. Without giving away what Ed refers to as "trade secrets," I don't think there is any doubt that books do take a side on some games to maximize profits. To think they are simply interested in the vig all the time would be nieve.

A couple good measures of what we are talking about would be watching the service plays and if you see 1-2 really lopsided plays (say 15 services listed have plays on Boston College, but none or only one has the other side), and the line is moving in the opposite direction of what you would expect, this is one such example. There are other ways to do this too. Our old friend Dyen from VI and Ibettor days used to be deeply involved in this type of handicapping/research.

I'll leave the rest of the discussion to Ed, and will chime in here and there where i can.

BTW...the question was asked earlier how Doctor Bob is doing this year. From his website, he has this posted: "I am now an unthinkable 13-22 on my College Best Bets this season and 31-60 on a Star Basis this season". That means he is -29 units.....


Rick

[FixerWins]

Further proof that the art will beat the science in the long run.

I don't mind giving away some "trade secrets", that's what the membership forum is all about.

[FixerWins]

We continued the trade secrets part of the discussion in the members only forum as we think it is fair for our paying members to be privy to that information. However, here is the summary to the conversation and the moral of the story.

SHAMELESS PLUG: If you wish to become a member, please register in and then click on the link at the top of any forum, and then you, YES YOU, can become an official ASHN member one low price of $14.99 per month or $159.99 annually.

The moral of the story here in this whole topic is the reason why picking winners will forever be a battle and never be easy. It is also the same reason why it will forever be challenging.

IT'S BECAUSE YOU ARE TRYING TO PREDICT THE FUTURE AND NO ONE IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF THE UNIVERSE HAS EVER HAD THE ANSWERS TO WHAT HAPPENS IN THE FUTURE OR WILL EVER HAVE THEM! That's what makes this passion so GREAT! You will never find the complete answers as much as you try but you can come up with a whole lot of theories and CAN be right more than 52.4% of the time and be successful, but never reach the eternal mark of 100%. But we will try forever!

Also let me postface this by saying, everything that I say here may not be right and may not be wrong, it is just my opinion from my experiences doing this for the past 20 years. I have an absolute passion for it, so most of the time it doesn't even feel like I am working and I enjoy getting into these conversations. I learn things every day in this business also, and as I stated above no one will ever know all the answers and that's what makes this passion so great. Trying to figure it all out.

Really, handicapping is an art and there is no right way or wrong way to handicap, just different ways. Equate it to painting a picture, there is no right or wrong way to paint a picture, you set your plan, develop it, and see how it comes out in the end. Just like handicapping, there are techniques that may be better than others, which equate to winning and losing, to give you a better looking picture, but whose to say those techniques will be agreed upon as great by everyone when they look at your picture. Some may love the picture, some may not.

You have to be the master of what winning and losing techniques to handicapping apply to you. Just like art shows that you enter your picture in to be judged, there are sportsbooks that you enter your handicapping into be judged. The sportsbooks become the judges of you vs the oddsmakers and they tell you your handicapping sucks by keeping your money, and then you have to go and refine your techiques so they can pay you out.