The Consensus Service Business

[ProfessorWins]

I just wrote a new article on consensus services. It is a must read for anyone interested in the sports handicapping industry. It will no doubt ruffle some feathers if read by the appropriate people, but more than anything it will educate the masses. The article is in my blog at

http://americansportshandicappingnetwork.com/blog/?p=38


Best to all

Rick

[FixerWins]

The whole handicapping service industry is pretty skeevy..........

Actually I am glad things happened the way they did with us, so we got to learn about it from the inside.

[FixerWins]

Also, I doubt it will "ruffle feathers" as the majority of the people have absolutely no conscience anyway and your voice isn't strong enough to take money out of their pockets.......which is all they are worried about.......well, it isn't strong enough at this time......... ;-)

[Spanky]

I think anyone who purchases picks from a consensus site is a idiot. I guess there could be a argument by a few that anyone who purchases plays in the first place is an idiot. I think the industry is changing for the handicappers. There are many sites(forums) that post handicappers plays five minutes after they release a play. I think this helps the public by making sure that they are getting the true side of a handicappers pick. The days of relying on a monitor( Oklahoma ) to follow guys picks to be sure they are advertising the correct records are over. There are forums now that the handicappers clients list their true record for everyone to see. On the other hand, I think these forums also do a dis-service to the honest handicapper. They work hard to handicap a play and instead of being able to sell them to the public, a client posts them five minutes after release and he find that no one wants to buy them. The dis honest handicapper will always have business because the gambling world is filled with idiots. It is becoming a tough environment for the honest handicapper because he is mixed in with the rest of the garbage.

[FixerWins]

AMEN BROTHER! You couldn't have summed it up more perfectly. That is the point we were trying to make in that Dr. Bob post without exactly saying it. The days of the honest handicapper selling picks is already over. I also like the term you said about dis-information marketing. When I saw a reputable service for many years this pre-season, that you already mentioned on this site, counting wins in games with lines that were available absolutely nowhere and forgetting to count losses so he can be advertised that he was undefeated, it was time to go.

I was listening to a radio show that had Jack Stewart on who monitors Vegas Sports Watch or something to that effect, it was on par as a rival of the Oklahoma thing. He stated his cappers have decreased because of a faction of cappers who left that are housed under one of the so called "big sites" (hint: have a radio show on Sirius Satellite every day). He said the only thing he asks of his cappers is to advertise legitimately when using his monitor as a reference. Someone reported a capper to him that he was advertising a #1 thing or something to that effect with the monitors name and this Stewart guy asked him to recant his advertisement. The capper stated that he would do that but the main guy who owned that site would not recant the advertisement and publish that it was a mistake and instead pulled all the cappers on his site from the monitor.

A few weeks later another big name capper who finds his way on your Saturday morning TV each week, or did at least, I refuse to watch those shows anymore was on the same radio program. And the host questioned him as to why he is no longer at Sports Watch, and that capper stated "Oh the guy made a lot of mistakes" and moved on.

I know this is a he said/he said type thing, but who would you believe. The guy losing business because he is asking people to be honest or the Saturday morning tout, who stated on the same program, that he doesn't keep a record of his free picks on the site, because he just doesn't have time to. Are you kidding me?

[Spanky]

I guess that I have been around long enough to cut through all the B.S. marketing a lot of the services put out. There is one firm who I will not name out of the Baltimore, M.D. area that lost me so much money one season in basketball I could hardly function through the week. If you went to their web site everyday you would think they were lighting the world on fire. They would lose five of six, but the way they talked about that one win really deceived the general public. I guess they didn't lie about anything but they were not forthright about their true record. Now that there plays are posted on various forums I do not think they can get away with the marketing dis-information. That service has had some good handicapping seasons in other sports but I just had to move on because I did not want to be client of a handicapping service that operated in that manner. I currently purchase picks from various handicappers in a couple different sports. I have been very happy as a client with the services that I do buy. The services that I do buy do not win every day, week or season. They do win in the long run and most importantly they help me with money management with their unit systems. In my opinion, the handicapping industry is filled with garbage but if you look hard enough you can find some quality handicappers that are honest and try to provide their clients with the best picks they can.

[FixerWins]

AMEN! We feel the same way. That is why we just decided to concentrate on this business. We can branch out. We still cap and provide picks in our member section, but in a less formal setting at a much lower price, so we don't knock out the $25 per game player and don't feel obligated to have to have picks up by a certain time. The hardest thing for me was having to have picks up by a certain time. It really handicaps you into making a rush decision sometimes when you are not ready. Another hour will help you greatly. Example, last night I took an extra hour or so to continue processing information on an NBA total, and I decided to pass it which was a loser, which is actually better then betting a winner. (this is another topic for another day, how passing losers is much more important than betting winners). I may have rushed that decision under the old format by having to have that up by a certain time, because if people are paying a fair price, they should have the picks when they want them.

Not only was I frustrated by that, but I was also frustrated with everything else you mentioned above about the dis-information marketing. We just did not want to get into that ring. Although you can see through that. 95% of the people can't.

So now we have this forum set-up, which is not only served as a vehicle to share handicapping information but to also get the truth out there of what really goes on and the why this industry is looked down upon, and how you can even get dis-informed by honest cappers.

I thought about our conversation the other day, where you kept bringing up the money and profit end of things, and after thinking about a few days, here is the point I am trying to make.

Everyone in this industry is more obssessed with turning profit and figuring out ways how to swindle the consumer than they are worried about putting together a solid product first and then letting the rest of that stuff take care of itself. Because if a capper was so wonderful, he shouldn't need to sell picks to make a living and be more obssessed with figuring out ways to make a profit than providing winners.

We are not worried about making a profit, because we are more worried about putting together a solid product that people can use, enjoy and have it help them accomplish 3 things:

1) Give them the confidence they need to understand no one knows more than them in the industry. Now with the internet, everything is public knowledge and with the proper resources and research, they can turn a profit in this business on their own. (If they do not have the time to do that, we can also provide them a very low cost "guidance service" in our member section where they can learn as they go along.)

2) To get out to the people our experience in the industry and report on things that we have experienced while debunking dis-information marketing and the myths that run rampant throughout.

3) To provide the resources to beat the spread and improve their bankroll.

If we do that, the rest of the stuff will take care of itself.

[FixerWins]

I feel like I am coming out of the closet.

This is 5+ years of pent up frustration in the industry, all being spewed out.

I feel better today then I have felt in the last 5 years combined.

[Spanky]

Good post. you are right about getting the picks at a certain time. I am guilty about trying to get my picks as soon as a handicapper releases them, because if he influences the line I want to be sure that I got the best number. I do get impatient if he says that they will be released at a certain time and they are not. That is one of the negatives a handicapper deals with. I would be interested in getting involved with your guidance program to see if it works for me. I am always intersted in learning to become a better handicapper. The truth is even though a handicapper releases a play, I still have to agree with the play because it is my money I am wagering. If the handicapper loses my book is taking the money from me and not the handicapper that gave me the pick. Where do I sign up?

[Spanky]

I just looked all over the forum to sign up for guidance as a member, but I guess I am not seeing where to click. I am also not seeing the advertisements with regards to being a member anywhere. Please direct.

[FixerWins]

We are working on getting it out there in open. Click on any forum, and it is in the announcement at the top.

[FixerWins]

http://www.americansportshandicappingnetwork.com/forums/payments.php

[Spanky]

I have two quality handicapping services that I have been using for the past year in football. Yesterday both services participated in offering their clients a pick which was listed as their game of the year. Both services lost their plays. I visit their web site today and not one comments about their loses. Both handicapping services highlight what strong play they have going in other sports. This is one segment of the handicapping industry that the clueless has to understand about the industry, it is not always what they are advertising but what they are not advertising. I realize that the handicapping industry is competitive and the services only want to only show what is positive about their picks. Just for once I would like to see a handicapping service advertise " I am sorry that we just had our ass handed to us our our strongest play of the year, hopefully you were not relying our pick to help you purchase holiday presents this year."

[FixerWins]

Do you know why the Game of the Year is always near the end of the year in each sport?

A) If it loses, it doesn't hurt sales the rest of the year.

B) It don't hurt sales the following year, because you may forget about it by the beginning of next year.

I actually found this out when I was in the business and it's another thing that made me nauseous. The GOY is all a marketing ploy to prey on the dis-informed. I wouldn't even say unintelligent because I know a few people who are real smart individuals in real life, that ALSO fall for these marketing ploys. They tell me, it's his game of the year, it has to be a great pick.

It's all about "dis-information marketing". (if I can steal your phrase there) If a capper were to put out his game of the year at the beginning of the year, and it were to lose, no one would purchase the rest of the year, because in their minds why bother with the rest of the plays if he lost his strongest play.

There are a few cappers out there that consistently put out their game of the years in the last week or two of each regular season. (Depending on how sales are going.) If sales are strong then he would keep pushing it off. If sales are weak, he may push it up a few weeks. It's all about selling snake oil.

Another funny thing I heard on the radio the other day. A guy was saying he was talking to a friend of his that sells picks. The friend that sells picks said that he was really hoping for West Virginia-Missouri to be the National Championship game because it would be an easier game to sell than LSU-Ohio St. (I am assuming because people would know less about those teams than LSU-Ohio St.) But my question would have been. As a handicapper, how the hell would you know you even liked the West Virginia-Missouri game before the line came out or even like the LSU-Ohio St. game at all. However, people don't care, it's the national championship game, they have to bet it, and the snake oil salesmen are there to provide your potion.

I knew I wouldn't last long in this business, when I passed the Super Bowl a few years ago, but advised people to play a 5* on St. Joe's over (whoever it was, I forget). People don't want to be marketed, don't play the Super Bowl but POUND St. Joe's over Fordham in College Hoops today and you will be better off in the long run.

So I am glad you pointed that out as hopefully it will help educate a few people.