Buying Points

[Spanky]

Professor,

What is your opinion about buying points. Take todays game Wake Forest vs. Connecticut. Some handicappers I know like UCONN +3. The line is -2 in most places and I do see a Bodog +3 -130 and even a Bet Chris +3.5 -155. We can always buy the number we want but in the long run do you find buying the extra points is worth the extra juice?

[ProfessorWins]

Spanky,

I am probably the wrong person to ask as I adamantly disagree with the prospect of buying pts. There are always examples of where it would have saved you a loss, but there are more cases where it would cost you additional juice, and over the long run that makes it more difficult to win than it already is. That said, there is only one number I would ever buy too, and that is 3, and even then I wouldn't do it on the blind. In other words, if I like the dog and the line is +2.5, I might consider buying the 1/2 pt (never more than 1/2 pt). If the number is 3.5, and I like the favorite, I might buy down, but that is the only number I would ever even contemplate buying a 1/2 pt on.

Your example of UCONN is a perfect example why you shouldn't buy points....instead of losing at -110 with the +2, you would have lost -130 or even -155. The data shows that it simply doesn't pay over time.

I did a study a couple years back that discussed this topic. I will try to dig it up for you, but can't guarantee that it is readily available as I think I burned it to a disk which is now in a box somewhere. In any case, I will look.

Rick

[Utopia]

I agree, about trying to avoid 'Buying Points'

If you think Plus +4' isn't enough to play the dog... grab the Favorite at -4'



I like knowing More Winners than Losers (By > 10%), I profited.

[FixerWins]

I think this is the easiest way to put it regarding buying points.

If you have to lay -130, you have to hit 56.5% of the games to break even.
If you have to lay -155, you have to hit 60.7% of the games to break even.

Laying -130 vs -110, (56.5% - 52.4%) = 4.1% difference. By buying the points and laying 130, does that give you a better than 4.1% advantage to win that game.

If you were to go back in history and take all the games at whatever the line is at -110 and move that line to what you are buying at -130, would it affect the outcome of the ATS result 4.1% of the time. I would doubt it.

-155 would be an 8.3% advantage.

[FixerWins]

In football, if I can get on a key number, 3, 4, 7, 10 for -115 or less, I may consider doing it as that may improve your win rate 1.1% of the time. The only way I venture into the 120 to 125 range, is if my average play for the day will not exceed -110 and if I dont have a choice as all my outs are offering 10, -120.

[Utopia]

Buying points appears to be the thing to do, but picking away at the vig of 10%, is like shoplifting just a little.

Best to just never do it.

With Football buying into the key number of 3, or 7, often costs 20 cents more instead of ten...

[FixerWins]

Agree, sometimes one book may offer +9.5, -105 another offering +10, -115 in football.......in a situation like that I would take the +10, -115........but in everything else and all other numbers, I would rather lay less juice......

[frankyDeuces]

Its is a sucker wager, its just like buying insurence at a BJ table. THE ONLY TIME you buy a point is if ur laying 1/2pt. -2.5,-3.5-4.5 and so on, buy the hook. never fun to lose by 1/2 pt. But thats still a MAYBE, i recommend never buying points... NOT worth it... There are so many places to shop for a better number.. just SHOP AROUND