ProfessorWins
12-23-2007, 06:41 AM
2* CENTRAL MICHIGAN +7.5 over Purdue
Central Michigan should be right at home on the turf at Ford Field. Turf is their natural surface, and they are 18-6 ATS last 3 years on that surface. Meanwhile, Purdue has played just one game on turf this season, and are better suited for the natural stuff. Believe it or not, I believe that the surface here will make a world of difference from when these two met back in September at Purdue. In that game, Purdue jumped out to a 31-0 halftime lead before coming away with the 45-22 win to barely cover the -21 number. Purdue went on to start the season 5-0, but limped down the stretch going 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS to end the regular season. That, however, I believe was more the product of a pretty tough schedule that included games against Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State than bad play on the part of Purdue. It does, however, put the Boilermakers in a pretty bad situation as bowl favorites that finished the regular season with 2 or more consecutive SU/ATS losses are just 6-20 ATS since 1984, including 1-7 ATS if they are playing on 35 or more days rest (Purdue is on 36 days rest). Additionally, bowl favorites with a win percentage of less than .750 for the season playing with between 31-40 days of rest are just 18-52 ATS, 74.1% against, in pre-New Year's Day Bowl Games since 1996. Additionally, bowl dogs like Central Michigan with a losing pointspread (ATS) record for the season are 35-7 ATS since 1999 if playing a team that is playing on 30 or more days rest. I would love to make this a 5* play, but the fact that Central Michigan won this very same bowl game last year, and I hate playing on teams that won that same bowl the previous season will keep me off it big. This is especially true given that they are playing a Purdue team that is hungry for a bowl win having lost three consecutive bowls SU since last winning one in 2002 (their seniors have never tasted bowl victory). As such, I will lay it down as a 2* on the dog.
Rick
Central Michigan should be right at home on the turf at Ford Field. Turf is their natural surface, and they are 18-6 ATS last 3 years on that surface. Meanwhile, Purdue has played just one game on turf this season, and are better suited for the natural stuff. Believe it or not, I believe that the surface here will make a world of difference from when these two met back in September at Purdue. In that game, Purdue jumped out to a 31-0 halftime lead before coming away with the 45-22 win to barely cover the -21 number. Purdue went on to start the season 5-0, but limped down the stretch going 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS to end the regular season. That, however, I believe was more the product of a pretty tough schedule that included games against Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State than bad play on the part of Purdue. It does, however, put the Boilermakers in a pretty bad situation as bowl favorites that finished the regular season with 2 or more consecutive SU/ATS losses are just 6-20 ATS since 1984, including 1-7 ATS if they are playing on 35 or more days rest (Purdue is on 36 days rest). Additionally, bowl favorites with a win percentage of less than .750 for the season playing with between 31-40 days of rest are just 18-52 ATS, 74.1% against, in pre-New Year's Day Bowl Games since 1996. Additionally, bowl dogs like Central Michigan with a losing pointspread (ATS) record for the season are 35-7 ATS since 1999 if playing a team that is playing on 30 or more days rest. I would love to make this a 5* play, but the fact that Central Michigan won this very same bowl game last year, and I hate playing on teams that won that same bowl the previous season will keep me off it big. This is especially true given that they are playing a Purdue team that is hungry for a bowl win having lost three consecutive bowls SU since last winning one in 2002 (their seniors have never tasted bowl victory). As such, I will lay it down as a 2* on the dog.
Rick